Montana 2 House race 2026: Forstag vs. Flint polls
Sam Forstag (D) and Aaron Flint (R) are running for the House seat in Montana 2. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Sam Forstag at 47.9% and Aaron Flint at 33.3%, which is Forstag +14.6. That gives Sam Forstag a 95% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D.
About this race
This is the race for Montana’s 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 2 general-election polls of this race, and the newest ended on October 21.
- Sam Forstag (Democrat) is at 47.9% in the Frothier polling average.
- Aaron Flint (Republican) is at 33.3% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Forstag leads; below it Flint leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Forstag (D) | Flint (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | Oct 21 | 287 Adults | 49.0 | 32.0 | Forstag +17.0 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | Sep 7 | 375 RV | 41.0 | 42.0 | Flint +1.0 |
Frothier coverage
Recent stories from the outlets Frothier tracks that name these candidates.
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the Montana 2 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Montana 2 House race?
Frothier tracks Sam Forstag (Democrat) against Aaron Flint (Republican).
Who is leading the Montana 2 House race polls?
Sam Forstag +14.6 in the Frothier average of 2 polls (Sam Forstag 47.9%, Aaron Flint 33.3%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Montana 2 House race?
Frothier rates the race Likely D. Sam Forstag has about a 95% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Montana 2 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 21, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.