Maine 2 House race
Matt Dunlap (D) and Paul LePage (R) are running for the House seat in Maine 2. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Matt Dunlap at 48.3% and Paul LePage at 49.6%, which is LePage +1.2. That gives Paul LePage a 56% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Dunlap leads; below it LePage leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Dunlap (D) | LePage (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Sep 30 | 500 LV | 50.0 | 48.0 | Dunlap +2.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Sep 12 | 500 LV | 49.0 | 49.0 | Even |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Aug 13 | 621 LV | 48.0 | 49.0 | LePage +1.0 |
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Jul 16 | 600 LV | 49.0 | 48.0 | Dunlap +1.0 |
| co/efficientR poll | Apr 28 | 918 LV | 40.0 | 50.0 | LePage +10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16 | 520 LV | 46.0 | 47.0 | LePage +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.