Maine 1 House race 2026: Pingree vs. Russell polls
Chellie Pingree (D) and Ronald Russell (R) are running for the House seat in Maine 1. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Chellie Pingree at 57.0% and Ronald Russell at 35.0%, which is Pingree +22.0. That gives Chellie Pingree a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
About this race
This is the race for Maine’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on September 21.
- Chellie Pingree (Democrat) is at 57.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- Ronald Russell (Republican) is at 35.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pingree leads; below it Russell leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pingree (D) | Russell (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 657 LV | 57.0 | 35.0 | Pingree +22.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the Maine 1 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Maine 1 House race?
Frothier tracks Chellie Pingree (Democrat) against Ronald Russell (Republican).
Who is leading the Maine 1 House race polls?
Chellie Pingree +22.0 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Chellie Pingree 57.0%, Ronald Russell 35.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Maine 1 House race?
Frothier rates the race Safe D. Chellie Pingree has about a 99% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Maine 1 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on September 21, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.