California 6 House race
Richard Pan (D) and Kevin Kiley (I) are running for the House seat in California 6. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Richard Pan at 36.8% and Kevin Kiley at 36.4%, which is Pan +0.3. That gives Richard Pan a 51% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pan leads; below it Kiley leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pan (D) | Kiley (I) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Sep 6 | 927 LV | 36.7 | 36.5 | Pan +0.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16 | 741 LV | 39.0 | 35.0 | Pan +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.