California 22 House race
Randy Villegas (D) and David G. Valadao (R) are running for the House seat in California 22. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Randy Villegas at 46.8% and David G. Valadao at 45.3%, which is Villegas +1.5. That gives Randy Villegas a 57% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Villegas leads; below it Valadao leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Villegas (D) | Valadao (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Jun 21 | 800 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Villegas +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.