California 11 House race
Scott Wiener (D) and Connie Chan (D) are running for the House seat in California 11. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Scott Wiener at 51.4% and Connie Chan at 48.0%, which is Wiener +3.5. That gives Scott Wiener a 65% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Wiener leads; below it Chan leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Wiener (D) | Chan (D) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern ResearchD poll | Sep 17 | 658 LV | 53.0 | 47.0 | Wiener +6.0 |
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Jul 19 | 500 LV | 45.0 | 40.0 | Wiener +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.