California governor's race
Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) are running for governor of California. Across 8 polls, the Frothier average has Xavier Becerra at 53.7% and Steve Hilton at 35.8%, which is Becerra +17.9. After blending the polls with how California usually votes, the estimate is Becerra +17.8. That gives Xavier Becerra a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Becerra leads; below it Hilton leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Becerra (D) | Hilton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVC Media | Sep 28 | 2,906 LV | 48.0 | 38.0 | Becerra +10.0 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | Sep 20 | 4,512 LV | 58.0 | 33.0 | Becerra +25.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 20 | 742 LV | 55.0 | 33.0 | Becerra +22.0 |
| TrueDot | Sep 14 | 1,983 LV | 54.0 | 36.0 | Becerra +18.0 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Sep 10 | 1,098 LV | 60.0 | 38.0 | Becerra +22.0 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | Aug 9 | 2,310 LV | 55.0 | 37.0 | Becerra +18.0 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Jul 6 | 1,003 LV | 61.0 | 36.0 | Becerra +25.0 |
| Kreate Strategies | Jun 17 | 900 RV | 58.0 | 33.0 | Becerra +25.0 |
| University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban | May 26 | 735 LV | 58.0 | 35.0 | Becerra +23.0 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | May 24 | 8,578 RV | 52.0 | 31.0 | Becerra +21.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.