California 4 House race 2026: Jones vs. Thompson polls
Eric Jones (D) and Mike Thompson (D) are running for the House seat in California 4. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Eric Jones at 43.8% and Mike Thompson at 36.3%, which is Jones +7.5. That gives Eric Jones a 80% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
About this race
This is the race for California’s 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 21.
- Eric Jones (Democrat) is at 43.8% in the Frothier polling average.
- Mike Thompson (Democrat) is at 36.3% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jones leads; below it Thompson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Jones (D) | Thompson (D) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Binder ResearchD poll | Oct 21 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 35.0 | Jones +10.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the California 4 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the California 4 House race?
Frothier tracks Eric Jones (Democrat) against Mike Thompson (Democrat).
Who is leading the California 4 House race polls?
Eric Jones +7.5 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Eric Jones 43.8%, Mike Thompson 36.3%), as of October 29, 2026.
Who is favored to win the California 4 House race?
Frothier rates the race Lean D. Eric Jones has about a 80% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the California 4 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 21, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.