California 48 House race
Marni von Wilpert (D) and Jim Desmond (R) are running for the House seat in California 48. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Marni von Wilpert at 45.1% and Jim Desmond at 42.2%, which is Wilpert +2.9. That gives Marni von Wilpert a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Wilpert leads; below it Desmond leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Wilpert (D) | Desmond (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 1 | 522 LV | 45.0 | 42.0 | Wilpert +3.0 |
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Jul 14 | 500 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Wilpert +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.