Montana Senate race
Seth Bodnar (I) and Kurt Alme (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Montana. Across 11 polls, the Frothier average has Seth Bodnar at 27.4% and Kurt Alme at 43.6%, which is Alme +16.1. That gives Kurt Alme a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bodnar leads; below it Alme leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bodnar (I) | Alme (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | Sep 24 | 604 LV | 26.1 | 45.1 | Alme +19.0 |
| Aspect Strategic | Sep 15 | 715 LV | 32.0 | 44.0 | Alme +12.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 15 | 625 LV | 26.1 | 45.3 | Alme +19.2 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | Sep 7 | 845 RV | 30.0 | 38.0 | Alme +8.0 |
| Peak InsightsR poll | Aug 25 | 600 LV | 22.0 | 44.0 | Alme +22.0 |
| Hart Research Associates | Aug 4 | 800 LV | 30.0 | 45.0 | Alme +15.0 |
| GQR | Jul 26 | 500 LV | 27.0 | 41.0 | Alme +14.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16 | 793 LV | 24.0 | 36.0 | Alme +12.0 |
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Jun 24 | 800 LV | 25.0 | 47.0 | Alme +22.0 |
| GrayHouse | Jun 24 | 500 LV | 17.0 | 41.0 | Alme +24.0 |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Jun 11 | 500 LV | 20.0 | 44.0 | Alme +24.0 |
| Tavern Research | May 18 | 607 LV | 26.0 | 46.0 | Alme +20.0 |
| Change Research | Mar 20 | 616 LV | 35.1 | 36.8 | Alme +1.8 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.