Florida 22 House race
Pia Dandiya (D) and Casey Askar (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 22. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Pia Dandiya at 47.0% and Casey Askar at 47.3%, which is Askar +0.3. That gives Casey Askar a 51% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Dandiya leads; below it Askar leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Dandiya (D) | Askar (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD poll | Aug 31 | LV | 46.0 | 44.0 | Dandiya +2.0 |
| Tavern Research | Aug 12 | 551 LV | 50.0 | 50.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.