Florida 13 House race
Leela Gray (D) and Anna Paulina Luna (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 13. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Leela Gray at 42.7% and Anna Paulina Luna at 45.7%, which is Luna +3.0. That gives Anna Paulina Luna a 65% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gray leads; below it Luna leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gray (D) | Luna (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Aug 27 | LV | 44.0 | 43.0 | Gray +1.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesR poll | Aug 6 | 400 LV | 41.0 | 49.0 | Luna +8.0 |
| GQRD poll | Aug 6 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 47.0 | Luna +3.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | May 20 | 616 RV | 39.0 | 41.0 | Luna +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.