Florida 9 House race
Darren Soto (D) and Dan Green (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 9. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Darren Soto at 39.8% and Dan Green at 42.3%, which is Green +2.5. That gives Dan Green a 61% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Soto leads; below it Green leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Soto (D) | Green (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA PollingD poll | Aug 30 | 400 LV | 41.0 | 41.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.