Florida 11 House race
James Pericola (D) and Joe Strada (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 11. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has James Pericola at 40.6% and Joe Strada at 43.4%, which is Strada +2.8. That gives Joe Strada a 62% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pericola leads; below it Strada leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pericola (D) | Strada (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW CommunicationsD poll | Jul 30 | 1,044 LV | 41.8 | 42.1 | Strada +0.3 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.