Arizona 6 House race
JoAnna Mendoza (D) and Juan Ciscomani (R) are running for the House seat in Arizona 6. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has JoAnna Mendoza at 45.8% and Juan Ciscomani at 46.2%, which is Ciscomani +0.4. That gives Juan Ciscomani a 52% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Mendoza leads; below it Ciscomani leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Mendoza (D) | Ciscomani (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesD poll | Jun 11 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 45.0 | Mendoza +2.0 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR poll | Mar 14 | 400 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Mendoza +3.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Oct 15 | 581 RV | 42.0 | 41.0 | Mendoza +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.