Arizona governor's race
Katie Hobbs (D) and Andy Biggs (R) are running for governor of Arizona. Across 9 polls, the Frothier average has Katie Hobbs at 46.4% and Andy Biggs at 39.2%, which is Hobbs +7.2. After blending the polls with how Arizona usually votes, the estimate is Hobbs +6.3. That gives Katie Hobbs a 84% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hobbs leads; below it Biggs leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hobbs (D) | Biggs (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NextGenP | Aug 19 | 1,378 RV | 39.0 | 37.5 | Hobbs +1.5 |
| HighGround | Aug 18 | 400 LV | 49.5 | 34.3 | Hobbs +15.2 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 17 | 780 LV | 49.1 | 43.2 | Hobbs +5.9 |
| Kreate StrategiesR poll | Aug 16 | 900 LV | 45.0 | 40.0 | Hobbs +5.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 13 | 923 LV | 48.4 | 35.4 | Hobbs +13.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 13 | 530 LV | 43.0 | 38.0 | Hobbs +5.0 |
| GrayHouseR poll | Aug 11 | 600 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Hobbs +4.0 |
| Tarrance Group | Jul 30 | 600 LV | 52.0 | 48.0 | Hobbs +4.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Jul 28 | 913 LV | 52.0 | 44.0 | Hobbs +8.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7 | 996 RV | 41.0 | 37.0 | Hobbs +4.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Apr 24 | 1,159 LV | 48.4 | 37.6 | Hobbs +10.8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Feb 26 | 1,023 RV | 42.0 | 37.0 | Hobbs +5.0 |
| NextGenP | Dec 17 | 2,725 RV | 51.0 | 32.0 | Hobbs +19.0 |
| Emerson College | Nov 10 | 850 RV | 44.1 | 43.4 | Hobbs +0.7 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 18 | 948 RV | 39.0 | 37.0 | Hobbs +2.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 16 | 1,026 RV | 40.0 | 38.0 | Hobbs +2.0 |
| Pulse Decision ScienceR poll | Apr 9 | 501 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Hobbs +4.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Feb 13 | 1,006 RV | 40.0 | 38.0 | Hobbs +2.0 |
| Kreate StrategiesR poll | Feb 7 | 924 LV | 43.0 | 44.0 | Biggs +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.