Arizona 1 House race
Amish Shah (D) and Jay Feely (R) are running for the House seat in Arizona 1. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Amish Shah at 44.4% and Jay Feely at 41.6%, which is Shah +2.8. That gives Amish Shah a 62% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Shah leads; below it Feely leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Shah (D) | Feely (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | Oct 1 | 400 RV | 44.4 | 41.6 | Shah +2.8 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.