Michigan 7 House race
William Lawrence (D) and Tom Barrett (R) are running for the House seat in Michigan 7. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has William Lawrence at 47.6% and Tom Barrett at 48.1%, which is Barrett +0.5. That gives Tom Barrett a 52% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Lawrence leads; below it Barrett leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Lawrence (D) | Barrett (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 13 | LV | 49.0 | 47.0 | Lawrence +2.0 |
| Data for ProgressD poll | Jun 30 | 772 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Lawrence +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.