Michigan governor's race
Jocelyn Benson (D) and John James (R) are running for governor of Michigan. Across 22 polls, the Frothier average has Jocelyn Benson at 49.3% and John James at 42.2%, which is Benson +7.1. After blending the polls with how Michigan usually votes, the estimate is Benson +6.6. That gives Jocelyn Benson a 86% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Benson leads; below it James leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Benson (D) | James (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 4 | 3,949 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Benson +3.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Oct 1 | 682 LV | 46.0 | 39.0 | Benson +7.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Sep 28 | 1,028 LV | 54.0 | 45.0 | Benson +9.0 |
| Marist University | Sep 27 | 1,235 RV | 53.0 | 41.0 | Benson +12.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Sep 27 | 800 LV | 50.0 | 45.0 | Benson +5.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 23 | 843 LV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Benson +3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 605 LV | 48.5 | 42.8 | Benson +5.6 |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | Sep 21 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 38.0 | Benson +7.0 |
| Suffolk University | Sep 20 | 500 LV | 50.6 | 34.4 | Benson +16.2 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Sep 14 | 803 LV | 53.0 | 41.0 | Benson +12.0 |
| Emerson College | Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | 48.6 | 41.9 | Benson +6.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 6 | 843 LV | 50.0 | 41.0 | Benson +9.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Sep 3 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Benson +4.0 |
| EPIC-MRA | Aug 28 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 41.0 | Benson +4.0 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | Aug 20 | 779 LV | 52.0 | 43.0 | Benson +9.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Aug 11 | 877 LV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Benson +5.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | Aug 10 | 1,215 LV | 53.0 | 36.6 | Benson +16.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Aug 10 | 1,006 RV | 52.0 | 47.0 | Benson +5.0 |
| EPIC-MRA | Jul 31 | 600 LV | 47.0 | 38.0 | Benson +9.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jul 29 | 672 LV | 46.0 | 44.0 | Benson +2.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Jul 24 | 600 LV | 43.7 | 38.7 | Benson +5.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jun 13 | 827 LV | 51.0 | 40.0 | Benson +11.0 |
| TIPP InsightsR poll | May 23 | 1,163 LV | 48.9 | 38.0 | Benson +10.9 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | May 7 | 606 LV | 42.0 | 30.0 | Benson +12.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | May 1 | 600 LV | 34.2 | 29.2 | Benson +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.