Michigan 10 House race
Christina Hines (D) and Mike Bouchard (R) are running for the House seat in Michigan 10. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Christina Hines at 43.7% and Mike Bouchard at 46.2%, which is Bouchard +2.5. That gives Mike Bouchard a 61% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hines leads; below it Bouchard leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hines (D) | Bouchard (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 13 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 45.0 | Even |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jan 17 | 592 RV | 44.0 | 42.0 | Hines +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.