Wisconsin 6 House race
Michael Thurow (I) and Glenn Grothman (R) are running for the House seat in Wisconsin 6. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Michael Thurow at 44.7% and Glenn Grothman at 54.5%, which is Grothman +9.8. That gives Glenn Grothman a 86% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Thurow leads; below it Grothman leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Thurow (I) | Grothman (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 28 | 437 LV | 45.0 | 55.0 | Grothman +10.0 |
| Change Research | Mar 20 | 640 LV | 37.7 | 41.7 | Grothman +3.9 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.