Utah 4 House race
Jonny Larsen (D) and Mike Kennedy (R) are running for the House seat in Utah 4. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jonny Larsen at 32.9% and Mike Kennedy at 41.7%, which is Kennedy +8.8. That gives Mike Kennedy a 83% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Larsen leads; below it Kennedy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Larsen (D) | Kennedy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research | Sep 17 | 513 RV | 32.9 | 41.7 | Kennedy +8.8 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.