Kentucky Senate race
Charles Booker (D) and Andy Barr (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Charles Booker at 38.7% and Andy Barr at 50.3%, which is Barr +11.5. After blending the polls with how Kentucky usually votes, the estimate is Barr +15.2. That gives Andy Barr a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Booker leads; below it Barr leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Booker (D) | Barr (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Aug 27 | 600 LV | 40.0 | 49.0 | Barr +9.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Dec 19 | 650 RV | 38.0 | 49.0 | Barr +11.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.