New Mexico Senate race
Ben Ray Luján (D) and Larry Marker (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Ben Ray Luján at 53.8% and Larry Marker at 36.3%, which is Luján +17.5. After blending the polls with how New Mexico usually votes, the estimate is Luján +16.6. That gives Ben Ray Luján a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Luján leads; below it Marker leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Luján (D) | Marker (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 30 | 567 LV | 54.0 | 36.0 | Luján +18.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | Aug 28 | 516 LV | 53.0 | 38.0 | Luján +15.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.