Oklahoma Senate race
Jim Priest (D) and Kevin Hern (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jim Priest at 27.0% and Kevin Hern at 48.0%, which is Hern +21.0. After blending the polls with how Oklahoma usually votes, the estimate is Hern +22.6. That gives Kevin Hern a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Priest leads; below it Hern leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Priest (D) | Hern (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hargrave | Aug 6 | 500 RV | 27.0 | 48.0 | Hern +21.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.