Nebraska 1 House race
Chris Backemeyer (D) and Mike Flood (R) are running for the House seat in Nebraska 1. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Chris Backemeyer at 41.7% and Mike Flood at 43.3%, which is Flood +1.5. That gives Mike Flood a 57% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Backemeyer leads; below it Flood leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Backemeyer (D) | Flood (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Sep 3 | 600 LV | 43.0 | 42.0 | Backemeyer +1.0 |
| Zenith Research | May 11 | 401 RV | 38.0 | 45.0 | Flood +7.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.