New Jersey 7 House race
Rebecca Bennett (D) and Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) are running for the House seat in New Jersey 7. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Rebecca Bennett at 47.0% and Thomas H. Kean Jr. at 42.0%, which is Bennett +5.0. That gives Rebecca Bennett a 71% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bennett leads; below it Kean leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bennett (D) | Kean (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StimSight Research | Sep 12 | 498 LV | 47.0 | 42.0 | Bennett +5.0 |
| Z to A ResearchD poll | May 26 | 430 LV | 47.0 | 43.0 | Bennett +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.