New Mexico 2 House race
Gabriel Vasquez (D) and Greg Cunningham (R) are running for the House seat in New Mexico 2. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Gabriel Vasquez at 46.0% and Greg Cunningham at 43.0%, which is Vasquez +3.0. That gives Gabriel Vasquez a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Vasquez leads; below it Cunningham leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Vasquez (D) | Cunningham (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 2 | 554 LV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Vasquez +3.0 |
| co/efficientR poll | Apr 28 | 879 LV | 43.0 | 41.0 | Vasquez +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.