New Mexico 1 House race 2026: Stansbury vs. Okpareke polls
Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) and Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R) are running for the House seat in New Mexico 1. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Melanie Ann Stansbury at 53.0% and Ndidiamaka Okpareke at 35.0%, which is Stansbury +18.0. That gives Melanie Ann Stansbury a 97% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
About this race
This is the race for New Mexico’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 9.
- Melanie Ann Stansbury (Democrat) is at 53.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- Ndidiamaka Okpareke (Republican) is at 35.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Stansbury leads; below it Okpareke leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Stansbury (D) | Okpareke (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | Oct 9 | 380 LV | 53.0 | 35.0 | Stansbury +18.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the New Mexico 1 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the New Mexico 1 House race?
Frothier tracks Melanie Ann Stansbury (Democrat) against Ndidiamaka Okpareke (Republican).
Who is leading the New Mexico 1 House race polls?
Melanie Ann Stansbury +18.0 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Melanie Ann Stansbury 53.0%, Ndidiamaka Okpareke 35.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the New Mexico 1 House race?
Frothier rates the race Safe D. Melanie Ann Stansbury has about a 97% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the New Mexico 1 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 9, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.