New Mexico 3 House race 2026: Fernandez vs. Zamora polls
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) and Martin Ruben Zamora (R) are running for the House seat in New Mexico 3. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Teresa Leger Fernandez at 53.0% and Martin Ruben Zamora at 39.0%, which is Fernandez +14.0. That gives Teresa Leger Fernandez a 93% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D.
About this race
This is the race for New Mexico’s 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 9.
- Teresa Leger Fernandez (Democrat) is at 53.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- Martin Ruben Zamora (Republican) is at 39.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Fernandez leads; below it Zamora leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Fernandez (D) | Zamora (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | Oct 9 | 362 LV | 53.0 | 39.0 | Fernandez +14.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the New Mexico 3 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the New Mexico 3 House race?
Frothier tracks Teresa Leger Fernandez (Democrat) against Martin Ruben Zamora (Republican).
Who is leading the New Mexico 3 House race polls?
Teresa Leger Fernandez +14.0 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Teresa Leger Fernandez 53.0%, Martin Ruben Zamora 39.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the New Mexico 3 House race?
Frothier rates the race Likely D. Teresa Leger Fernandez has about a 93% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the New Mexico 3 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 9, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.