Oklahoma 5 House race
Jena Nelson (D) and Stephanie Bice (R) are running for the House seat in Oklahoma 5. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jena Nelson at 41.8% and Stephanie Bice at 49.3%, which is Bice +7.5. That gives Stephanie Bice a 79% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Nelson leads; below it Bice leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Nelson (D) | Bice (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAOD poll | Sep 20 | 500 LV | 43.0 | 48.0 | Bice +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.