Tennessee 9 House race
Justin Pearson (D) and Brent Taylor (R) are running for the House seat in Tennessee 9. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Justin Pearson at 42.8% and Brent Taylor at 49.3%, which is Taylor +6.5. That gives Brent Taylor a 76% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pearson leads; below it Taylor leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pearson (D) | Taylor (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesD poll | Sep 3 | 400 LV | 44.0 | 48.0 | Taylor +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.