Tennessee Senate race
Marquita Bradshaw (D) and Bill Hagerty (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Marquita Bradshaw at 33.0% and Bill Hagerty at 58.0%, which is Hagerty +25.0. After blending the polls with how Tennessee usually votes, the estimate is Hagerty +23.6. That gives Bill Hagerty a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bradshaw leads; below it Hagerty leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bradshaw (D) | Hagerty (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | Aug 26 | 607 LV | 33.0 | 58.0 | Hagerty +25.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.