Tennessee governor's race
Jerri Green (D) and Marsha Blackburn (R) are running for governor of Tennessee. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Jerri Green at 34.4% and Marsha Blackburn at 50.3%, which is Blackburn +15.9. After blending the polls with how Tennessee usually votes, the estimate is Blackburn +15.2. That gives Marsha Blackburn a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Green leads; below it Blackburn leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Green (D) | Blackburn (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetSmartD poll | Sep 12 | 600 LV | 36.0 | 45.0 | Blackburn +9.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | Aug 26 | 601 LV | 34.0 | 55.0 | Blackburn +21.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | Apr 27 | 1,157 RV | 27.0 | 51.0 | Blackburn +24.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 7 | 600 RV | 28.0 | 49.0 | Blackburn +21.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.