Virginia 1 House race
Shannon Taylor (D) and Robert Wittman (R) are running for the House seat in Virginia 1. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Shannon Taylor at 44.7% and Robert Wittman at 48.2%, which is Wittman +3.5. That gives Robert Wittman a 65% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Taylor leads; below it Wittman leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Taylor (D) | Wittman (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Sep 17 | 519 LV | 46.0 | 47.0 | Wittman +1.0 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR poll | Mar 12 | 400 LV | 42.0 | 46.0 | Wittman +4.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Aug 9 | 541 RV | 40.0 | 41.0 | Wittman +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.