Virginia 2 House race
Elaine G. Luria (D) and Jen Kiggans (R) are running for the House seat in Virginia 2. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Elaine G. Luria at 45.7% and Jen Kiggans at 48.3%, which is Kiggans +2.5. That gives Jen Kiggans a 61% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Luria leads; below it Kiggans leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Luria (D) | Kiggans (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Jul 13 | 700 LV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.