Virginia 5 House race
Tom Perriello (D) and John McGuire (R) are running for the House seat in Virginia 5. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Tom Perriello at 44.7% and John McGuire at 50.0%, which is McGuire +5.4. That gives John McGuire a 74% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Perriello leads; below it McGuire leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Perriello (D) | McGuire (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Sep 28 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 51.0 | McGuire +6.0 |
| Expedition StrategiesD poll | Sep 24 | 400 LV | 45.0 | 46.0 | McGuire +1.0 |
| Expedition StrategiesD poll | Aug 1 | 602 LV | 44.0 | 47.0 | McGuire +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.