Alabama Senate race
Everett Wess (D) and Barry Moore (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Everett Wess at 34.2% and Barry Moore at 52.5%, which is Moore +18.4. After blending the polls with how Alabama usually votes, the estimate is Moore +19.6. That gives Barry Moore a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Wess leads; below it Moore leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Wess (D) | Moore (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG ResearchR poll | Sep 25 | 800 RV | 33.0 | 54.0 | Moore +21.0 |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jul 11 | 601 LV | 32.0 | 47.0 | Moore +15.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.