Alabama governor's race
Doug Jones (D) and Tommy Tuberville (R) are running for governor of Alabama. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Doug Jones at 38.4% and Tommy Tuberville at 48.8%, which is Tuberville +10.4. After blending the polls with how Alabama usually votes, the estimate is Tuberville +11.1. That gives Tommy Tuberville a 93% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jones leads; below it Tuberville leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Jones (D) | Tuberville (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG ResearchR poll | Sep 25 | 800 RV | 37.0 | 50.0 | Tuberville +13.0 |
| yes. every kid. foundation. | Jul 11 | 601 LV | 41.0 | 49.0 | Tuberville +8.0 |
| Cygnal Political | Nov 13 | 605 LV | 34.1 | 52.6 | Tuberville +18.5 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.