Arkansas Senate race
Hallie Shoffner (D) and Tom Cotton (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Hallie Shoffner at 41.0% and Tom Cotton at 47.6%, which is Cotton +6.7. After blending the polls with how Arkansas usually votes, the estimate is Cotton +10.9. That gives Tom Cotton a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Shoffner leads; below it Cotton leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Shoffner (D) | Cotton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | Aug 18 | 803 LV | 35.0 | 51.0 | Cotton +16.0 |
| Hendrix College | Aug 12 | 1,217 LV | 47.4 | 44.0 | Shoffner +3.4 |
| 2040 Strategy GroupD poll | Jul 25 | 586 LV | 43.0 | 46.0 | Cotton +3.0 |
| GrayHouseR poll | Feb 9 | 550 LV | 36.0 | 58.0 | Cotton +22.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.