Arkansas governor's race
Fred Love (D) and Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) are running for governor of Arkansas. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Fred Love at 40.0% and Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 45.0%, which is Sanders +5.0. After blending the polls with how Arkansas usually votes, the estimate is Sanders +7.2. That gives Sarah Huckabee Sanders a 83% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Love leads; below it Sanders leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Love (D) | Sanders (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | Aug 12 | 1,217 LV | 40.0 | 45.0 | Sanders +5.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.