Idaho Senate race
Todd Achilles (I) and James Risch (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Idaho. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Todd Achilles at 25.0% and James Risch at 46.8%, which is Risch +21.8. That gives James Risch a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Achilles leads; below it Risch leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Achilles (I) | Risch (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak InsightsR poll | Sep 30 | 500 LV | 24.0 | 49.0 | Risch +25.0 |
| Peak InsightsR poll | Aug 13 | 500 LV | 18.0 | 52.0 | Risch +34.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Aug 7 | 608 LV | 30.0 | 34.0 | Risch +4.0 |
| Change Research | Jul 30 | LV | 19.0 | 43.0 | Risch +24.0 |
| Peak InsightsR poll | Jun 7 | 500 LV | 7.0 | 55.0 | Risch +48.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jun 1 | 774 RV | 18.0 | 41.0 | Risch +23.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 17 | 639 RV | 34.0 | 48.0 | Risch +14.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.