Idaho governor's race
Terri Pickens (D) and Brad Little (R) are running for governor of Idaho. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Terri Pickens at 27.0% and Brad Little at 48.0%, which is Little +21.0. After blending the polls with how Idaho usually votes, the estimate is Little +19.9. That gives Brad Little a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pickens leads; below it Little leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pickens (D) | Little (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 27.0 | 48.0 | Little +21.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.