Illinois Senate race
Juliana Stratton (D) and Don Tracy (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Illinois. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Juliana Stratton at 49.0% and Don Tracy at 36.0%, which is Stratton +13.0. After blending the polls with how Illinois usually votes, the estimate is Stratton +15.3. That gives Juliana Stratton a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Stratton leads; below it Tracy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Stratton (D) | Tracy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 1 | 569 RV | 49.0 | 36.0 | Stratton +13.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.