Illinois governor's race
JB Pritzker (D) and Darren Bailey (R) are running for governor of Illinois. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has JB Pritzker at 54.0% and Darren Bailey at 34.0%, which is Pritzker +20.0. After blending the polls with how Illinois usually votes, the estimate is Pritzker +17.8. That gives JB Pritzker a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pritzker leads; below it Bailey leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pritzker (D) | Bailey (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 1 | 569 RV | 54.0 | 34.0 | Pritzker +20.0 |
| Victory Research | Nov 24 | 1,200 LV | 54.3 | 34.0 | Pritzker +20.3 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.