Massachusetts Senate race
Ed Markey (D) and John Deaton (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts. Across 6 polls, the Frothier average has Ed Markey at 53.1% and John Deaton at 29.0%, which is Markey +24.0. After blending the polls with how Massachusetts usually votes, the estimate is Markey +26.6. That gives Ed Markey a 100% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Markey leads; below it Deaton leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Markey (D) | Deaton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 22 | 800 LV | 54.0 | 28.0 | Markey +26.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 556 LV | 53.0 | 30.0 | Markey +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 906 LV | 49.0 | 30.0 | Markey +19.0 |
| YouGov | Aug 12 | 800 RV | 51.0 | 30.0 | Markey +21.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 618 LV | 50.0 | 34.0 | Markey +16.0 |
| Suffolk University | Jun 12 | 500 RV | 55.0 | 29.8 | Markey +25.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 20 | 603 LV | 55.0 | 32.0 | Markey +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16 | 616 LV | 56.0 | 27.0 | Markey +29.0 |
| Cygnal PoliticalR poll | Jan 25 | 800 LV | 54.0 | 30.0 | Markey +24.0 |
| Suffolk University | Nov 23 | 500 RV | 54.0 | 31.0 | Markey +23.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Mar 4 | 775 RV | 45.0 | 26.0 | Markey +19.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.