Massachusetts governor's race
Maura Healey (D) and Mike Minogue (R) are running for governor of Massachusetts. Across 6 polls, the Frothier average has Maura Healey at 53.9% and Mike Minogue at 34.2%, which is Healey +19.7. After blending the polls with how Massachusetts usually votes, the estimate is Healey +19.8. That gives Maura Healey a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Healey leads; below it Minogue leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Healey (D) | Minogue (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | Sep 22 | 800 LV | 54.0 | 32.0 | Healey +22.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 557 LV | 54.0 | 38.0 | Healey +16.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 884 LV | 54.0 | 30.0 | Healey +24.0 |
| YouGov | Aug 12 | 800 RV | 53.0 | 33.0 | Healey +20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 608 LV | 51.0 | 32.0 | Healey +19.0 |
| Suffolk University | Jun 12 | 500 RV | 56.2 | 31.0 | Healey +25.2 |
| Polity Research Consulting | May 7 | 608 RV | 58.0 | 31.0 | Healey +27.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 20 | 599 LV | 52.0 | 32.0 | Healey +20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16 | 612 LV | 56.0 | 27.0 | Healey +29.0 |
| YouGov | Oct 29 | 800 Adults | 51.0 | 26.0 | Healey +25.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.