Rhode Island Senate race
Jack Reed (D) and Raymond McKay (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in Rhode Island. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Jack Reed at 52.7% and Raymond McKay at 32.7%, which is Reed +20.0. After blending the polls with how Rhode Island usually votes, the estimate is Reed +20.8. That gives Jack Reed a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Reed leads; below it McKay leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Reed (D) | McKay (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 595 LV | 53.0 | 33.0 | Reed +20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 722 LV | 51.0 | 31.0 | Reed +20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 627 LV | 52.0 | 35.0 | Reed +17.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 20 | 556 LV | 52.0 | 34.0 | Reed +18.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.