South Dakota Senate race
Brian Bengs (I) and Mike Rounds (R) are running for the U.S. Senate seat in South Dakota. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Brian Bengs at 45.3% and Mike Rounds at 50.1%, which is Rounds +4.9. That gives Mike Rounds a 76% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bengs leads; below it Rounds leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bengs (I) | Rounds (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenith Research | Sep 27 | 500 LV | 47.0 | 53.0 | Rounds +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 9 | 629 RV | 42.0 | 45.0 | Rounds +3.0 |
| Impact Research | Aug 17 | 500 LV | 44.0 | 44.0 | Even |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Jul 9 | 500 LV | 33.0 | 56.0 | Rounds +23.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | May 30 | 726 RV | 23.0 | 43.0 | Rounds +20.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 18 | 685 RV | 35.0 | 47.0 | Rounds +12.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 14 | 814 RV | 31.0 | 44.0 | Rounds +13.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 31 | 552 RV | 28.0 | 41.0 | Rounds +13.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.