South Dakota governor's race
No general-election polls have been published for this race yet. The estimate rests on how South Dakota voted for president in 2024, adjusted for the national generic ballot, which points to R +12.3. The race is rated Lean R. The seat is currently held by Republicans.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.